LIKELY TIER
All things being even, I would consider Wendell the favorite here. I just have the same feeling I did in Ghost Island - when exactly is the right time to get rid of this guy? He's a palatable enough winner for both the jurors who want strategy and the jurors whose egos don't want a big name to win.
People underestimate Tyson, he's probably going to be seen as the joker of the pack and not looked at as a strategic threat. He can hide behind big targets like Rob and then make his move when he needs to. He also benefits from Edge of Extinction more than anyone. My only reservation is everybody knows he's a huge challenge threat, and he doesn't have an injury to hide behind this time.
Ethan has spent the longest time out of the game and is gonna have to learn to adapt pretty quickly to the new landscape. There's definitely potential for him to slip under the radar as the threats go after eachother.
This has to be one of the most anticipated returns of the season. For me she's the GOAT, though I'm sure the Kim skeptics will be out in force if she doesn't do well. She might have a tough time given her reputation, but you know what? I have faith in Kim. If anyone can beat the odds to go far, it's her.
Jeremy has already proven that he can win a returnee season, and his Cambodia strategy of shielding himself should be easily applicable here. He should get along with both the new school and old school players, which makes him very dangerous.
I'm stoked for Adam that he gets to play alongside his heroes. That could probably be his biggest asset: he probably knows all these players like the back of his hand and has a great gauge on the pre-game dynamics. If there is a new school alliance, Adam will likely be at the heart of it.
Sarah played an incredible game that is often unappreciated because she had a low threat level going on. Well, guess what? That's gonna happen again. In her bio she talks about "psychological warfare" being her new strategy. So we've gone from playing like a criminal to playing like a terrorist?
POSSIBLE TIER
Wow, didn't expect him to come back but I love it. Anyone who says Yul only won because of the overpowered idol is missing how talented of a player he is. He's a true politician who was able to sway Penner to his side with solid logic, and saw the big picture in terms of negotiating for Adam's jury vote. He's a high variance pick for me. He could go home early because he's not connected and a potential threat, but if he does slide through the first few votes? Watch out, because he'll really thrive as a crucial swing vote.
Natalie is another one that could go either way. I don't doubt she has Survivor chops, but she's also known to be a hothead which could come out if things don't go her way. I think her aggressive style might suit this cast though.
Finally some Guatemala representation! Danni is one of the most exciting casting choices for me, because I have no idea what to expect. She's the only player who admitted to not keeping up with the show in her bio. Every returning player season we search for the player with Amber upside. Danni might be the player that has more than Amber herself! Her under-the-radar style should serve her well on this season.
Denise Stapley (Philippines)Denise has one of the best social games ever, using her therapist skills to connect with everybody on a human level. She also comes from a demographic that doesn't normally get much love at FTC. The biggest knock against Denise has to be she was willing to go to the end with Malcolm, so does she have the killer instinct?
I'm someone who was never especially high on Sophie, but she's well-placed here as someone in the middle timing-wise who fits the "most medium suspect" theory. She's not too distant or too connected, she doesn't have a high reputation nor a weak one. In fact, most people will probably forget about her.
It'll be interesting to see how Parvati's game changes now that she's a wife and mom. Those who pigeonhole her as the flirt are about to see what she can do. It's a tall order, but she's had her back against the wall before.
Despite what Probst might think, I'm fine with Michele coming back...she's easy to root for and I'm sure has a lot to prove. My concern with her is: will the jury want her to represent the season? If not, she could struggle for votes. However the fact she's talking about needing to advocate for her own story shows she is thinking ahead to that and has the right mindset.
I'm not sure how to feel about both of Romber being on the season. They did earn it I guess, and if the players are stupid enough to leave them in when there's such an easy pitch to get them out, that's on them. I could easily see her being taken out as collateral to weaken Rob, but if Rob goes early instead, she might be good for a while. I think she's a lot more competitive than people give her credit for, and if she's up for this, watch out!
UNLIKELY TIER
If the cast are smart, Ben would be one of the first targets. If you saw how his season played out, why would you let him get remotely close to the endgame ever again? Ben is likeable though, so he could get into a good alliance.
The target on Rob's back must be gargantuan. He has three ride-or-dies in this cast...I can't imagine they'll let it stay that way for long. Rob's controlling gameplay has had a pretty mixed record, and I don't think this cast would be dumb enough to fall for it if he tries to play that way again.
The more I think about it, the more I don't think Nick will do well here. The cast skews older and he's one of the youngest, plus the "aw shucks" persona won't work anymore. I almost think he might be first boot, which would be a course correct for David Vs Goliath.
I think Tony is gonna be a dead man walking coming into this season, and his early exit in Game Changers did nothing to change that. He's a known idol hound and backstabber, why would anyone want to work with him? At least he is finally recognizing that trying the same approach again will not work. Tony's game was truly lightning in a bottle and nobody can replicate it...not even Tony.
I just don't see any way Sandra can win this game. If nothing else, fire will take her out. I also don't think she wants or needs this as much as the other players...she already has a second title and has nothing else to prove. Obviously she's got game, but her opponents all know it and I'm sure won't be sleeping on the one player that's going into this a level above the rest.
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